Missouri’s Ticking Pension Time Bomb

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

The front page article in today’s Post-Dispatch is about the underfunding of Missouri’s public employee pension programs. This is a serious issue that deserves more attention, and the Show-Me Institute is happy to oblige. Check out our full policy study on the matter, as well as this op-ed by Joe Haslag, who is quoted in the P-D article.

The main problem with Missouri’s public employee pension plans, as discussed in both the P-D article and our policy study, is that they use an outdated system of defined benefits. This plan is generally less expensive for the employees (who is likely concerned about retirement savings, at least somewhat) and more expensive for the employers (who have to pay the difference when the amount they set aside in anticipation of payouts turns out to be insufficient because of changes in valuation, such as stock market fluctuations).

The economics of this arrangement can be simplified as follows (pardon if this is too abecedarian): Employees accept a certain wage and benefit package when choosing between employers. It is common for employers to compete for employees by offering different combinations of wage and benefit packages. When viewed in context of the prevailing type of plan offered by employers, the Missouri public employee pension plans are more generous to the employee and more expensive for the employer. It may be the case that in order to attract the number and quality of employees that the various state agencies desire, a less attractive benefits package with a less generous pension plan would need to be balanced with increased salaries.

As I see it, this is a very good thing. The costs of retirement benefits are only fully realized in the future, when market fluctuations may cause a plan to become underfunded — a situation that is likely to happen only with defined benefit plans. One reason these plans are popular, however, is because the nature of political incentives means that politicians have a much greater chance of enacting a plan with benefits that can be realized today and costs that are paid for tomorrow. If government agencies in Missouri were forced to compete with private companies based on salary rather than benefits, this would lead to increased immediate costs for public employees, which would also mean higher taxes. I think that Missourians would be more likely to vote for less public spending if the spending had to be paid for here and now, rather than after the lifetime of the employee’s career.

As Richard Dreyfuss points out in his Show-Me Institute policy study, defined contribution plans would not only level the playing field between public and private employers pursuing potential employees, it would put the Missouri pension plans on firm ground, economically — defusing the time bomb of underfunded employee pensions.

Categories: Government Spending, Taxes | Leave a comment

Our World-Famous Health Care Study

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

The latest Show-Me Institute Policy Study — “The Prognosis for National Health Insurance: A Missouri Perspective” — is shaping up to be a slam dunk.

Produced by Arduin, Laffer & Moore Econometrics, the study gives some historical perspective on the growth of the public sector’s role in paying for health care expenses, and provides an analysis of the effect of a public health care plan on Missouri residents. The study spells out the expected costs such a plan would impose per capita on Missouri residents, as well as making predictions about inflated medical costs overall in the face of increased bureaucratic distance between health care producers and consumers.

And it’s getting attention. Missourinet ran a segment about it, and it was also featured on Jamie Allman’s radio show yesterday, as well as some more attention from him while he was guest hosting for The Laura Ingraham Show this morning. So far, it has also been featured in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Springfield News-Leader. This coverage combined to break our previous single-day study download record yesterday, and we’ve already more than doubled that number so far today.

Why wait? Read the study that everyone is talking about. Or, if time will simply not permit, at least check out the four-page briefing paper.

Categories: Health Care, Media, Show-Me Institute | Leave a comment

Economics of Our Health

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

There’s been a lot of talk lately about health care, especially at the suddenly very popular town hall–style meetings, which have seen both violence and passionate debate. As both David Stokes and I have argued, we are better off remaining civil. And, because health care is so important to us here at the Show-Me Institute, I thought I’d weigh in with some thoughts on health care reform.

If it were the case that a government solution, in the form of any act of Congress or national board of medical care, could provide service better than an actual competitive system, I would support it wholeheartedly, and would advocate it strongly. It’s worth pointing out, though, that what we have now is not a free market — it’s not even close.

Because of economic reality, no act of government would produce something better than a competitive system would, so long as the good or service in question is excludable (and medicine certainly is). This is because the price system operates in a way that produces an optimum allocation of resources, given limited availability of goods and information.

Health care in this country is broken because government intervention prevents competition from fixing it. Alleviation of licensing, regulation, and other burdens would encourage entrepreneurs to innovate cheaper forms of care. This is true not only of the providers of health care services, but also of health insurance provision. Right now, we are lucky we aren’t all getting the kind of “care” they get in McAllen, Texas. That’s a place where doctors are really exploiting the market power they are granted by the AMA monopoly and the current level of federally funded medicine (Medicare and Medicaid). I definitely recommend this New Yorker article — which we’ve linked to before — even though I disagree with the author’s conclusions about how to proceed, policy-wise.

And, for the record, medicine is not the best way to improve health. Sound counter-intuitive? Well, check this out:

our main problem in health policy is a huge overemphasis on medicine. The U.S. spends one sixth of national income on medicine, more than on all manufacturing. But health policy experts know that we see at best only weak aggregate relations between health and medicine, in contrast to apparently strong aggregate relations between health and many other factors, such as exercise, diet, sleep, smoking, pollution, climate, and social status. Cutting half of medical spending would seem to cost little in health, and yet would free up vast resources for other health and utility gains. To their shame, health experts have not said this loudly and clearly enough.

I added the emphasis for the “other factors,” because it’s important to realize which factors may make more of a difference than increasing medical treatment, which, unfortunately, is getting all the attention in the current debate.

The above quote is from a fantastic article by Robin Hanson. I HIGHLY recommend it to anyone concerned with making this country healthier.

Or, if you just want the latest coverage of Missouri’s town hall meetings from the Show-Me Institute’s roving reporter Audrey Spalding, check out her article on Policy Pulse.

Categories: Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Despite Admirable Goal, Autism Bill Ill-Conceived

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

The Post-Dispatch has the latest about Gov. Jay Nixon’s struggle to ensure medical coverage for all Missouri children who have autism. I have selected a truly arcane method of judging his argument; in it, I’ll praise his intentions and convictions, while drawing critical attention to the reasonableness of the proposal itself.

The ancient Greeks divided argumentation into three criteria: “ethos,” the ethical credibility of the speaker; “pathos,” the emotional appeal of the speaker; and “logos,” the logic of the speaker’s argument. In this case, Nixon’s ethos is admirable — he wants to help these children and their families. To determine his pathos regarding this matter, look no further than this report about his level of conviction. However, as far as sober logic is concerned, his proposal is ill-conceived.

It goes like this: Autism among children is on the rise, and the treatment is prohibitively expensive. Many families can’t afford the treatment or the insurance coverage that would pay for it, but if we force insurance companies to cover all autistic children, the cost of the treatment would be spread among all the insurance company’s premium paying customers.

The economic logic of this is dubious at best. It externalizes the cost of what should be an internal transaction, forcing many people to pay for something that they will see no benefit from. The plight of autistic children is very sad, and my heart goes out to the families affected by it, but it is unreasonable to make the paternalistic decision to reallocate the money of those who buy insurance. Deadweight loss would inevitably result in such a scenario, and, like other subsidies — especially those for issues that can be so emotionally moving — the question quickly becomes, “Why pay for this treatment and not that one?” A compelling emotional argument can be made in favor of subsidizing all manner of medical care, but someone has to pay the resulting bill.

Criticism is not particularly useful without a proposed alternative. I submit that there are many people right here in Missouri — not just insurance customers — that would be willing to part with a modest amount of money in order to ensure that those who can’t get autism coverage because they can’t afford it are provided for. I would rather see a voluntary system, be it a charity campaign, or a checkbox on your state income tax form or license plate renewal application, etc., with wording along these lines: “Would you like to contribute 1, 5, or 10 dollars to provide help for poor autistic children?” The people who contribute to such a fund would not necessarily be the people who buy insurance, but this would eliminate the deadweight loss.

Sarah Brodsky has been a prolific writer about the topic of mandatory autism coverage, with a great op-ed and several blog posts, all of which are worth reading.

Categories: Government Spending, Health Care | 4 Comments

Show-Me Health Care Outing: A Newt Experience

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

This morning, six employees of the Show-Me Institute and one of our regular book club attendees found ourselves among 200 other guests at the futureFOCUS 2009 seminar, which featured a presentation from former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. He made some excellent points that I can only agree with on the topic of health care, including: The public option is likely ill-considered; taxes should be lowered across the board so that individuals will have more money to buy their own health care; and, the present level of bureaucracy is to blame for much of the present cost of health care. He also pointed out that the Canadian system currently does not cover a number of conditions, for which many Canadians cross the border to get treatment; if we adopt a system similar to Canada’s, where will those people go?

Gingrich made one point I did not agree with. After pointing out that the progression of technology will afford new avenues for medical care and scientific progress, he used that as an opportunity to advocate a federally funded project that would study the brain using the latest technology, similar to the Human Genome Project or the Manhattan Project.

Overall, Gingrich was an incredible speaker, and the hour just flew by. During the Q&A, one audience member indicated his disappointment at the lack of outrage at some of President Barack Obama’s proposals. He asked, “Do you have any outrage?” Gingrich waited several beats before responding, and ultimately indicated that, yes, it’s easy to get outraged, but then you’re exhausted and you may not accomplish what you want. It’s better to remain level-headed, slow down the debate, and point out anything false stated by your opponents with calm reason.

This reminded me of a blog post I read awhile back about how anger and emotionality in politics is adaptive. It made sense for our ancestors to get excited about policy decisions, because it could literally mean life and death for the tribe. As modern individuals with the benefit of self-analysis and better reason, however, it is incumbent upon us to follow Gingrich’s great advice and make every effort to withhold anger, instead letting cooler heads prevail. It makes sense that a veteran politician would have learned this lesson already, but it was still impressive to see him articulate it so clearly.

Categories: Health Care | 1 Comment

David Stokes on the News

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

I didn’t catch David Stokes on Fox 2 last night in St Louis, but fortunately the clip is online. Dave was interviewed regarding the Internet furor about plans by the city of St. Louis to apply its 1-percent earnings tax to players in the All-Star Game, which St. Louis is hosting this year. As Stokes explains in the video, and as many Show-Me Institute publications have expressed before, the city earnings tax is a bad idea for the economic health of the city.

Be sure and check out the clip, and also some of our related publications, such as this op-ed and this policy study.

Categories: Local Government, Media, Show-Me Institute, Taxes | 1 Comment

MOSERS Bonuses Revisited

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

Jim Winkelmann — who was mentioned recently on this blog for his pithy letter to the Post-Dispatch arguing against the Clayton smoking ban — has had another letter to the editor printed in that paper. This one addresses the contentious topic of bonuses for Missouri public pension managers.

I wrote about this topic before, contending that criticism of the bonuses didn’t make sense given that the fund was (at least on paper) not losing value as fast as the rest of the market. I am now reconsidering, given Winkelmann’s clever point that the MOSERS employees were the ones assigning value to the investments that they reported as having lost less value than the market.

Here is a relevant quotes from the letter:

The MOSERS website reports that its investment policy is to have 25% of the pension portfolio invested in “alternative investments” in the published annual report they are referred to as “limited partnerships”. Even though the balance sheet in the annual report uses the term “fair market value” assigned to these limited partnerships by definition there is no ready market for these investments. […]

With no market for these limited partnerships where do these fair market valuations come from?

I ran into Winkelmann at lunch yesterday, and he commented to me that the problem is similar to that of assigning “market value” to a house appreciating or depreciating … before it’s sold. The fact is that the true market value of a thing is never the amount that you expect to receive — instead, it is the amount that somebody will actually pay.

I don’t agree with the argument that the MOSERS employees’ bonuses were unearned just because the plan lost money. However, the more subtle yet very relevant point that the MOSERS valuation was totally subjective, and assigned by the very people who stood to gain by inflating the number, smacks of perverse incentives.

Categories: Economic Freedom, Media | 5 Comments

A Taxing Dilemma

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

Caitlin Hartsell’s recent blog entry discusses another recent news piece, this one in the Springfield News-Leader, about that lawyer who is suing small Missouri towns that he holds to be charging illegally high sales taxes. I already talked about this in terms of theory, so I thought I’d use this opportunity to discuss the issue a bit more practically.

Here’s what I think should happen:

Officials in the towns that are charging these contested additional sales taxes believe they are in the right, because they received a letter from the Missouri Department of Revenue telling them what they could charge. The law, in my thoroughly layman interpretation, is ambiguous. It would be wonderful if we had an unambiguous state law that would prevent the present conflict between small towns’ desire to tax sales above 1.5 percent and the threat of expensive judgments/settlements.

In the absence of that, I question whether sales tax rates above 1.5% is actually needed in these towns. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, they want tax revenues in order to provide needed services to their communities. Perhaps a better solution would be to reduce the number of taxing districts, so that the benefits of economies of scale can be realized. This possibility, which is one of the insightful prescriptions of David Stokes’ recent policy study of government in Missouri, could work as an alternative to higher sales tax rates.

At present, I am of two minds about the lawsuits. On one hand, lowering sales tax rates benefits consumers immensely. On the other, I worry about which avenues for funding these towns might undertake if the sales tax rug were suddenly pulled out from under them. I am not optimistic that cutting spending will be considered as an option.

Categories: Government Spending, Local Government, Taxes | 1 Comment

High-Speed Rail Would Take Taxpayers for a Ride

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

There’s an unfortunate discussion going on among Midwestern governors and the federal government about a possible high-speed rail line linking major Midwestern cities. The Show-Me Institute has covered the problems with light rail in the past, but surely some of the arguments carry over: This project will likely cost more than projected, and the benefits are almost certainly overstated.

If this issue appeals to you, stay tuned to Policy Pulse for stories relating to this and other topics of interest.

Categories: Government Spending, Transportation | 1 Comment

Local Tax: Ups and Downs

[This post was originally written for my employer’s blog, Show-Me Daily.]

There’s an article in the Columbia Daily Tribune today that discusses the latest flap in Jefferson City about a sales tax issue (link via Combest). The article deals with some general perverse incentives, and is an interesting study in public choice theory, but the precise issue at hand also touches on some interesting free-market ideas.

It seems that a lawyer has been suing some small towns in Missouri for charging what he claims is an illegal sales tax. State law is a bit ambiguous on this point. From the article:

State law allows cities to levy sales taxes for general purposes and capital improvements, subject to voter approval. The rates vary up to 1 percent for a general sales tax and one-half percent for a capital improvements tax. In 1999, the Department of Revenue issued a letter saying there was “no limit to the number of taxes” that could be adopted under the law.

The legality of such taxes is not as important to me as whether they should be illegal — that is, whether there is a compelling reason to allow or disallow local taxation of certain levels. I will refer once again to one of my favorite economic concepts: the Tiebout Model, which shows that under certain conditions, local government can do the best possible job at satisfying its constituents’ preferences.

In short, I am not entirely opposed to local sales taxes, because they are the most likely form of taxation to be approved by people who want them, and the least likely to subject unwilling people to taxation that they feel does not fund things they of which they approve. Moreover, local taxes tend to fund services that make the most sense for government provision, such as police and fire protection.

Here’s a glance at the current sales tax picture in St. Louis:

City of St. Louis Sales Tax Breakdown

4.225% State of Missouri
1.000% City – General Fund
0.375% City – General Fund
0.500% City – Transportation
0.500% City – Capital Improvements
0.250% Public Transit
0.100% Metro Parks/Recreation District*
0.666% Transitional School District
0.125% City-Parks and Recreation
0.500% Public Safety

8.241% Retail Sales Tax Rate
1.500% Sit Down Restaurants

9.741% Sit Down Restaurant Rate

This is a far cry from 1.5 percent, to be sure, but the Tiebout model indicates that these tax rates are by and large acceptable to and may accurately reflect the preferences of the residents of St. Louis, given the services they provide. On the other hand, here’s an article that discusses the possibility that residents of population centers are more willing to trade away economic freedom in exchange for the conveniences and efficiency gains of metropolitan living — an unsettling notion for the Tiebout model, and for those who love freedom.

Categories: Economic Freedom, Local Government, Taxes | 3 Comments